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ÀúÀÚ : ¾È¿ëÈç
¹ßÇàÇÐȸ : 21¼¼±âÁ¤Ä¡ÇÐȸ [The 21st Century Political Science Association]
¹ßÇàÁ¤º¸ : 21¼¼±âÁ¤Ä¡ÇÐȸº¸ Á¦ 16±Ç 2È£ pp.171-193(23 pages)
¹ßÇà³âµµ : 2006
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This research paper was aimed
at exploring the relationship between elections and the economy, especially the interaction effect of elections and incumbent governments\' policy capability on fiscal policy in Korea and Taiwan. To perform this work, I reviewed the debates on the relevance of the Political Business Cycle (PBC) theory which shed light on the relationship between elections and macroeconomic policy. The review of the debates led me to find such necessary conditions as ¡°the fixed election timing¡± and ¡°manageable economic condition¡± and then to formulate the first hypothesis of the paper: given such factors as fixed elections and manageable economic stability, incumbent governments will attempt to pursue expansionary fiscal policy before elections. To go further, this paper tried to make the second hypothesis by relaxing an assumption of the PBC theory with regard to incumbent governments\' policy capability: given such factors as fixed elections and manageable economic stability, as incumbent governments are more capable of managing fiscal policy, they will pursue expansionary fiscal policy before elections in terms of both probability and extent of managing fiscal expansion. This paper adopted the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression analysis to test these two hypotheses. The ARIMA regression analysis revealed that Korean ruling governments have pursued expansionary fiscal policy one quarter before elections and that the probability and extent of their fiscal manipulation depended on the degree of their policy capability. Meanwhile, Taiwanese ruling governments have inclined to manipulate fiscal policy three quarters before elections. However, unlike Korean governments, Taiwanese governments did not display a policy tendency to conduct fiscal expansion, depending on the degree of their policy capability. In conclusion, the first hypothesis of this paper could be supported in the analysis of Korean and Taiwanese cases, whereas the second hypothesis could be supported only in Korean case. (ÀÌÇÏ »ý·«)
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