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2011³â 5¿ù ½ÃÁ¡ÀÇ HPQ ±â¾÷ °¡Ä¡ Æò°¡ ¸®Æ÷Æ®ÀÔ´Ï´Ù. °ø½ÃµÈ ±â¾÷ 10k Report¸¦ Åä´ë·Î ¹Ì·¡ Finalcials¸¦ ¿¹ÃøÇÏ°í DCF, PE, EBO 3°¡Áö ¹æ¹ýÀ¸·Î °¢°¢ ValuationÇÑ ÈÄ À̸¦ Á¾ÇÕÇÏ¿© ÀûÁ¤ ÁÖ°¡ ¹üÀ§¸¦ »êÁ¤Çß½À´Ï´Ù. ±â¾÷ ValuationÀÇ Fundamentals¸¦ ÀÍÈú ¼ö ÀÖ´Â ¸®Æ÷Æ® »ç·ÊÀÔ´Ï´Ù.
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1. Net income adjustment
2. Income estimation
3. DCF Valuation
4. PE Valuation
5. EBO Valuation
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Starting from net income made
in income statement estimate, I estimated Free cash Flow for the next 5 years using percentage of sales or net income. With 7% of cash flow growth rate, the stock price comes out as 51.99$, which is higher than the price as of Dec. 15, 2010. This implies that at that time the market consensus for the HPQ¡¯s cash flow growth rate was around 6.7%.
For PE valuation, I took Del
l and Intel as HPQ¡¯s comparables. The reason of choosing these companies is that Dell is major competitor in PC industry and Intel is closer to HPQ in terms of business structure than Dell. HPQ¡¯s businesses are covering not only PC OEM, but also IT service and even financing sector. So those two companies are good comparables
As the result of EBO valuati
on, HPQ¡¯s stock price was undervalued, which is same result with of DCF and PE. According to the sensitivity analysis, the price of $47.95 as of 15 Dec. 2010 implies 0% growth of abnormal earnings. When we assume 2% of growth, the pri (ÀÌÇÏ »ý·«)
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1. 10K Reports https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch.html
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